Government finances

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MONDAY, 29 APRIL 2013

Barry the chartist shows Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard are talking nonsense about revenues crashing

A follow up on the Budget. The graphs again have a 13 monthly trailing moving average to smooth the sharp variations.

I have changed the basis of this analysis to exclude the GST and some other distorting features.

I have now just taken recurring receipts such as PAYG, Company taxes and taxes on Superannuation on the revenue side.

I have excluded GST and non tax revenues which ( and can be very volatile and high) are generally less than 6% of total receipts.

On the expendture side I have exluded GST and other states grants in expenditure totals but have given the history for each of Education, Health and Social Security.

The key revenue feature is the continuing weakness in corporate taxes paid. I suppose if you bash big business enough and destroy many small and medium businesses it is not surprising.

I don’t think Wayne Swan has yet realised that if businesses can’t be profitable then they can’t pay much tax. Can’t employ people either. Good Labor Values!!

PAYG shows we are continuing to be slugged (up A$40bn in just two years!) and superannuation is just not profitable enough for anyone.

The expenditures in the three main segments takes up about 68-70% of all outlays.They just keep rising.

A common assertion about Howard causing a middle class welfare surge is not supported by these data.

Note from 2006-mid 2008 Social Security rose from about A$87bnpa to about A$95bn- about A$8bn over two years.

The subsequent rise from A$95bn to almost A$130bn (over A$30bn) in two years is all Swan and Rudd!!

Rises in Health and Education do not seem to have been part of that Middle Class Welfare and the changes are modest relative to everything else.

And this graph just shows how the `Structural’ problem where Total Outlays ( excluding GST States Grants) just keep rising and tax revenues just can’t keep up.

Brilliant performances by Swan and Wong!

Revenue write downs indeed!

Neither knows what it means but if you do your best to reduce company earnings through red, green and black tape and set up a more restrictive work practices regime then by golly gosh you will reduce your taxes revenues!!

These monthly moving averages have been showing for a very long time that tax receipts never had a chance of keeping up with expenditures.

Who in Treasury is repsonsible for all this?

Who in the Treasurer’s or Finance Minister’s Offices hadn’t pointed this out?

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